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The recent unveiling of the Government of Saskatchewan’s fiscal year 2024-25 budget marks a significant milestone in the province’s economic trajectory.
Titled “Classrooms, Care, and Communities,” the budget outlines key fiscal projections, sectoral allocations, and strategic initiatives to foster growth, address societal needs, and ensure fiscal sustainability.
Here’s a breakdown of the key points from the budget announcement:
Overview
The Saskatchewan budget for 2024-25 is meticulously balanced between revenue generation, expenditure allocation, and deficit management.
Deficit Projection
On March 20, 2024, Finance Minister Donna Harpauer presented the budget for the upcoming fiscal year, projecting a deficit of $273.2 million.
Interestingly, the budget doesn’t suggest any tax changes, showing a thoughtful strategy for managing finances amid changing economic conditions. This decision reflects a careful approach to balancing the books while considering the province’s evolving needs.
The government aims to navigate economic shifts by maintaining tax rates without burdening taxpayers or risking essential services. This proactive stance underscores the importance of stability and adaptability in fiscal planning.
Revenue and Expense
Total revenue is estimated at $19.9 billion, up $184.2 million from the previous year, while expenses are projected to be $20.1 billion, marking a significant increase from the prior budget.
Revenue Sources
Furthermore, Finance Minister Donna Harpauer emphasizes the budget’s strategic direction, aligning with the evolving needs of Saskatchewan’s growing population.
With a projected population of 1.25 million, the province anticipates leveraging this demographic growth to stimulate economic activity and drive prosperity.
Harpauer underscores the government’s commitment to reinvesting growth dividends into critical areas such as education, health, and community development, reflecting a proactive approach to addressing societal priorities.
Moreover, the budget outlines a roadmap towards fiscal stability, with a projected return to balance by 2025-26. Despite facing a deficit of $273.2 million for the upcoming fiscal year, the government anticipates a surplus of $18 million in subsequent years. This marks a departure from previous projections, where a surplus of $208 million was forecasted for 2024-25.
Against the backdrop of fiscal management, the budget confronts the reality of provincial debt, which stands at $34 billion. While $21 billion is categorized as “taxpayer-supported” debt, $13 billion is attributed to “self-supported” debt.
- Revenue for 2024: $19.9B, up $184.2M from last year.
- Expenses: $20.1B, up $1.5B from 2023-24.
- The Top Revenue Sources are taxed ($9.72B), Federal transfers ($3.78B), and Other own-source revenue ($3B).
- Non-Renewable Resource Revenue Decline: Due to potash price moderation.
- Non-renewables now at 13.5% of total revenue, below the 15% target.
Expenses for the upcoming fiscal year are projected to reach $20.1 billion, representing a substantial increase of $1.5 billion, or 7.9 percent, compared to the previous year’s budget.
The government emphasizes “record” spending across various sectors, including significant ministries.
The top three areas of expenditure allocation are:
Projections for the end of the 2024 calendar year are based on the following forecasts:
- WTI Oil price: $77.00 US/barrel.
- Potash: $263.9 US/KCI tonne.
- Canadian dollar exchange rate: $0.74 US.
- Real GDP growth: Estimated at 1 percent.
- Retail sales growth: Projected to increase by 2.2 percent.
This comprehensive overview underscores the government’s commitment to fiscal prudence and transparency as it navigates the complex terrain of economic growth and fiscal responsibility.
Sectoral Implications
Health
Healthcare commands a substantial portion of the budget, with over half of the $7.6 billion allocated to the Saskatchewan Health Authority, receiving $4.7 billion, reflecting a 5.6 percent increase from the previous year.
Minister Harpauer emphasizes the Health Human Resources Action Plan’s goal of recruiting, training, and retaining skilled healthcare professionals to ensure adequate care provision.
Additionally, the federal government’s announcement of $560 million in health transfers will support various initiatives, including recruitment, retention, and training.
A notable allocation of $516.8 million is earmarked for health infrastructure spending, marking a significant year-over-year increase of $179.3 million. This includes projects such as the Prince Albert and Weyburn Hospital developments, a new long-term care facility in La Ronge, and the completion of the Regina General Hospital parkade and long-term care beds in Regina.
To address capacity pressures, $30 million is dedicated to Regina and Saskatoon, with an additional $10 million for the Regina Urgent Care Centre.
The Saskatchewan Cancer Agency’s budget sees a boost of $26.1 million, reaching $249 million, with a portion designated for establishing Regina’s new breast assessment center.
The mental health and addictions budget is $574 million, reflecting more than seven percent of the total health budget.
Randy Goulden, president of the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association, highlights the widespread impact of addictions across the province, underscoring the need for increased treatment and detox beds. The province aims to expand access to these vital services as part of its commitment.
Social Services
The Ministry of Social Services is set to receive a budget of $1.5 billion for the upcoming fiscal year, marking an increase of $112 million, equivalent to 7.8 percent, compared to the previous year’s allocation.
Within this budget, $16.7 million is allocated explicitly for addressing homelessness, demonstrating a targeted approach to tackling societal challenges. Additionally, $83 million is earmarked for the maintenance and repair of provincially owned housing units, reflecting the government’s commitment to ensuring adequate housing infrastructure.
However, despite these efforts, concerns have been raised about the budget’s adequacy in addressing the needs of the province’s most vulnerable populations.
Peter Gilmer highlights budget coverage gaps from the Regina Anti-Poverty Ministry, particularly in income security, affordable housing, and childcare.
Gilmer emphasizes that the current budget falls short of providing adequate support for these essential needs, indicating a potential gap in addressing the broader spectrum of social welfare concerns.
In response to the growing need for support, Saskatchewan Income Support and Saskatchewan Assured Income for Disability benefits are set to increase by three percent. This incremental adjustment reflects the government’s acknowledgment of providing sufficient assistance to individuals and families facing financial hardship.
While efforts are being made to enhance social service provisions, ongoing evaluation and adjustment are needed to ensure that the budget effectively meets Saskatchewan’s population’s diverse and evolving needs.
Capital Spending
The capital budget is the largest in history, amounting to $4.4 billion, and it includes significant allocations for hospital projects, road infrastructure, and school infrastructure.
Future Projections
Surplus Projections: The government forecasts three consecutive years of surpluses starting from 2025-26, with projected surpluses of $18 million, $225 million, and $340 million for the subsequent years.
Conclusion
The Saskatchewan 2024-25 budget reflects the government’s commitment to prioritizing key sectors such as health, education, and social services while making significant infrastructure investments to support the province’s growth and development. With careful fiscal planning, the government aims to achieve fiscal balance and economic stability in the coming years.